Silicon Material
This week, the price of silicon materials: the mainstream transaction price for monocrystalline re-investment materials is 34 yuan/KG, while the mainstream transaction price for monocrystalline dense materials is 32 yuan/KG; the quoted price for N-type materials is 38 yuan/KG.
Trading situation: This week, the transaction volume of polycrystalline silicon contracts continues to show a moderate adjustment trend. Some order prices have started to increase, but this type of order still constitutes a low overall proportion, which is not enough to drive a rebound in the industry average price.
Supply and demand dynamics: The listing of polycrystalline silicon futures is gradually moving forward, and there is a possibility of adjustment in the pricing framework. The participation level of third-party futures traders and their influence on price adjustments may increase, potentially alleviating the impact of changes in supply and demand relations on prices. In the near term, capacity clearance is still progressing steadily. In August, polycrystalline silicon output may continue its contraction trend. As prices remain below production costs, most manufacturers are still operating at a loss. This month, a certain top six company and a leading chemical enterprise may anticipate production halts. Overall monthly production may continue to adjust to around 140,000 tons, with the consolidation process of the top three players in the polycrystalline silicon market expected to exceed expectations.
Price Trends: This week, polycrystalline silicon prices remained stable, but manufacturers showed a stronger willingness to raise prices. With the advancement of polycrystalline silicon futures, the role of futures traders as a buffer for excess capacity will gradually become apparent. However, the key factor influencing prices continues to be the balance of supply and demand. The clearance of polycrystalline silicon capacity still requires a strategy that forces less competitive manufacturers to exit the market through cash flow losses. In the short term, there is an expectation of rising polycrystalline silicon prices, but the silicon wafer segment is still experiencing losses, making large-scale purchases unlikely. As a result, polycrystalline silicon prices are expected to continue consolidating.
Silicon Wafers
This week’s silicon wafer prices: The mainstream transaction price for P-type M10 wafers is 1.20 yuan per piece; for P-type G12, it is 1.70 yuan per piece; for N-type M10, it is 1.10 yuan per piece; for N-type G12, it is 1.55 yuan per piece; and for N-type G12R, it is 1.25 yuan per piece.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: There is a slight expectation of an overall increase in silicon wafer production in August, as leading manufacturers are resuming their production intentions. This may offset the reduced output from mid-tier manufacturers facing cash flow challenges.
Price Trends: This week, G12 (both N and P types) saw a price decrease due to pressure from downstream customers on major manufacturers, leading to corresponding price adjustments. As other manufacturers continue to switch to G12 (R) production, the supply surplus of G12 (R) is expected to intensify, resulting in ongoing price pressures. G10L production may increase in August alongside the recovery of leading manufacturers’ utilization rates; however, there has not yet been a significant uptick in downstream battery cell purchases, suggesting that prices may also face adjustment pressures.
Battery Cells
This week’s battery cell prices: The mainstream transaction price for M10 battery cells is 0.290 yuan/W, while the G12 battery cell price is also 0.290 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price for M10 monocrystalline TOPCon batteries is 0.285 yuan/W, and for G12 monocrystalline TOPCon batteries, it is 0.285 yuan/W.
Production and Inventory: In August, the production of battery cells remained stable; however, there is still a certain supply-demand gap compared to module production, which may lead to continued inventory accumulation risks. Some integrated manufacturers may have capacity adjustment plans within the month, and consolidation in the battery cell sector continues to advance.
Price Trend: This week, aside from adjustments in N-type TOPCon battery prices, other prices remained stable. With the visibility of downstream module orders still unclear, module manufacturers have a strong willingness to pressure prices for battery cells. Meanwhile, the battery cell sector faces weakened bargaining power due to high capacity homogeneity and pressure from upstream prices that have not stabilized, resulting in a slight adjustment of the mainstream average prices for N-type M10 and G12 to 0.285 yuan/W. The pricing for contract manufacturing also shows a trend of internal competition, with some manufacturers taking actions to lower prices in order to maintain basic operations.
Components
This week’s component prices: the mainstream transaction price for 182mm monocrystalline PERC modules is 0.71 yuan/W, for 210mm monocrystalline PERC modules it is 0.73 yuan/W, for 182mm bifacial double-glass monocrystalline PERC modules it is 0.72 yuan/W, for 210mm bifacial double-glass monocrystalline PERC modules it is 0.74 yuan/W, for 182mm bifacial double-glass TOPCon modules it is 0.76 yuan/W, and for 210mm bifacial double-glass HJT modules it is 0.90 yuan/W.
Production and Inventory: In August, production scheduling in the module segment was relatively cautious, with weak visibility on orders leading manufacturers to lower their production expectations. In the first half of the year, after the completion of P-type orders from second and third-tier manufacturers, P-type capacity has further cleared out, with current orders mainly consisting of N-type and increasingly concentrated among leading manufacturers. The overall production in August is expected to be close to the 48GW mark, with some BC manufacturers raising their production expectations.
Price Trends: This week, the price of TOPCon M10 modules was adjusted to 0.76 yuan/W and the HJT G12 price to 0.90 yuan/W. There is some divergence in quotes among manufacturers, with some expecting to support prices while others are competing for orders by pricing close to the lower end of mainstream quotes.
