The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its latest report, Energy Technology Perspectives 2024, that by 2035, the global market for major clean energy technologies (including solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, wind turbines, batteries, electrolyzers and heat pumps) will grow from $700 billion in 2023 to more than $2 trillion.
The report points out that from 2021 to 2023, the global manufacturing capacity of photovoltaic modules will increase from 450GW to 1.2TW. In 2023, the global photovoltaic module capacity utilization rate remained at about 55%. As of the end of June 2024, the solar photovoltaic manufacturing project reserve is about 460GW of modules, 280GW of batteries, 490GW of polysilicon and 150GW of silicon wafers. If all expansion plans are realized, the full-chain capacity will jump from 850GW at the end of 2023 to about 1TW at the end of 2030 (of which silicon wafers are the link that limits total capacity), and the capacity of the single module link will reach more than 1.6TW.
According to the IEA forecast, under the policy scenario committed by various countries, the global demand for solar photovoltaic modules will increase from 460GW in 2023 to 675GW in 2035, and reach 725GW by 2050. At the same time, by 2050, solar photovoltaic power generation will account for half of the world’s nominal power generation capacity.
With more and more countries and Latin American and African countries exploring their clean energy economies, Southeast Asia may become one of the lowest-cost places in the world to produce polysilicon, silicon wafers and modules in the next 10 years. If the clean energy transition accelerates, India will transform from a net importer of clean technology today to a net exporter in 2035.
In addition, in addition to the mining and processing of key minerals, emerging and developing economies can also use their competitive advantages to move up the value chain.
