In the past year, the influence of BC technology has been expanding, exceeding the industry’s expectations. Now, the focus of the industry’s controversy over the BC technology route has shifted from “whether it is worth developing” to “when it can occupy a dominant position”. In this technological iteration, can LONGi, which once relied on the monocrystalline route to establish its leading position in the photovoltaic industry, once again stage a “reversal” story?
Is it strength or a gamble?
Since LONGi officially determined the BC technology route, doubts have been heard. The arguments of “lagging behind in choice” and “wrong route” have been heard one after another, and the outside world’s doubts about it have also intensified: LONGi is obviously one of the earliest companies to develop TOPCon technology. Why did it give up the TOPCon “bonus” and risk losing the throne of global module shipments, and chose BC, which had high production process complexity, high equipment requirements, and relatively low production yield at the time?
If you delve into LONGi’s development history and understand its adherence to the principles of “first principles”, “no leading, no expansion” and “broad research and narrow investment”, you can understand the deep meaning of LONGi’s move. LONGi always stands in the perspective of the future and plans the current industrial layout with a long-term vision. It is not swayed by temporary gains and losses, nor is it trapped by the gains and losses of “one city or one pond”.
Looking back, LONGi’s start in the photovoltaic field was different. In 2006, when many peers were engaged in the low-cost, streamlined multi-crystalline route, LONGi was unique and chose the monocrystalline route with higher conversion efficiency but higher material cost at the time. This choice was based on the precise grasp of deep laws such as “first principles” – monocrystalline technology is the key to significantly reducing the cost of electricity in the future.
The following story is well known. With the efforts of LONGi and other companies, a series of new processes and technologies such as diamond wire cutting and PERC have been popularized and applied. Monocrystalline has gradually replaced polycrystalline, which has not only changed the pattern of the global photovoltaic industry, but also laid a solid foundation for subsequent technological development. To this day, whether it is PERC, TOPCon, HJT or the current highly anticipated BC technology, it is inseparable from the large-scale commercialization of the initial monocrystalline technology.
Standing at another crossroads of technological iteration, LONGi once again made a judgment based on the “first principle”: TOPCon is a transitional product, and BC technology will be a long-term platform technology like the monocrystalline RCZ technology and diamond wire cutting technology ten years ago. All crystalline silicon technologies will eventually develop in the direction of BC. LONGi executives have also spoken out on many occasions, predicting that BC battery technology will undoubtedly become the mainstream trend of crystalline silicon batteries in the next five to six years.
From the current perspective, we have to admit that LONGi is foresighted. TOPCon production capacity has surged from less than 100GW in 2023 to the current 500-600GW. The TOPCon products on the market are highly homogenized, and the price war has intensified, even falling below the cost price. The entire industry chain is losing money and is still lingering at a low point. Many industry insiders pointed out that at least in this round of photovoltaic downturn, TOPCon batteries have not brought a significant boost to the profits of photovoltaic companies, and technological progress has also entered a bottleneck period.
On the contrary, BC, as a differentiated product, is making rapid strides forward after overcoming the problems of complex processes, high difficulty and high costs. At the 12th bifi PV Workshop 2024 Zhuhai International Summit held recently, industry authorities such as Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of LONGi Green Energy, Chen Gang, Chairman of Aiko Solar, and Shen Wenzhong, Director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, all said: “So far, 80% to 90% of companies have no disputes, and everyone believes that BC is the future development direction of crystalline silicon cells.”
As for the disputes surrounding the long production process, high investment costs, and only suitable for distributed scenarios, LONGi and other companies have also responded with practical actions.
In terms of production process, in the past few years, LONGi has improved the original difficult process and has achieved significant optimization. LONGi has developed a new material that can reduce the original BC steps by 4 steps, making the BC process 2 steps less than the existing TOPCon technology.
From a cost perspective, although the cost of BC technology is still slightly higher than TOPCon, LONGi has significantly narrowed the cost gap between the two through continuous technological innovation and process optimization. Considering that BC technology has more battery processes and has more cost reduction routes than other routes, it is expected that by 2026, its cost will be on par with TOPCon, or even lower.
In terms of power, the efficiency of the HPBC 2.0 module products currently being produced by LONGi is 5% higher than that of TOPCon modules. At present, the first distributed photovoltaic power station equipped with LONGi HPBC 2.0 has been successfully connected to the grid. From the actual performance point of view, it uses 630W HPBC 2.0 double-glass modules, generates 3.2 million kWh of electricity annually, and has an electricity sales income of 1.2 million yuan. According to calculations, compared with the TOPCon power station of the same capacity, it generates 110,000 kWh more electricity annually, with a gain of 3.56%, and an additional profit of 1.05 million yuan in 25 years. Under the same area, the installed capacity of HPBC 2.0 modules increased by 5%, the power generation increased by 8.56%, the annual profit from electricity sales increased by 94,600 yuan, and the profit in 25 years increased by 2.3655 million yuan.
LONGi has responded to the prejudice that it is “only applicable to distributed scenarios” with the excellent performance of its Hi-MO 9 product based on HPBC 2.0 technology. This product is precisely positioned in the ground centralized market. Currently, BC components are used in large ground power station projects in China and overseas. At the same time, the high power of BC brings it a premium space. The market has been in a state of supply and demand, and it has entered the large-scale ground power station centralized bidding of the “five major power generation groups” in China.
The horn of counterattack has sounded
“BC will occupy half of the photovoltaic market in the next 2 to 3 years.” This is not only LONGi’s declaration, but also the general expectation of the entire photovoltaic industry for the prospects of BC technology.
From historical experience, looking at the iteration and industrial development of photovoltaic technology, it is not difficult to find that in the process of climbing to the “top stream”, each battery technology is accompanied by breakthroughs in key links such as equipment matching, process, stability, and reliability, as well as a sharp expansion of production scale and a comprehensive improvement of the industrial ecology.
Whether it is the former PERC technology or the current mainstream TOPCon technology, all confirm this law. Today, BC technology is no exception. After the process problems have been overcome one by one and the conversion efficiency has been significantly improved, the construction of BC’s ecosystem has gradually been put on the agenda.
Shen Wenzhong pointed out that BC is currently in a very favorable opportunity, that is, the entire industry chain has widely recognized and recognized BC technology. The industry has deeply realized the huge potential and advantages of BC technology, attracting the active participation of many supporting companies including auxiliary material suppliers, new technology developers and laser technology. I believe that in the next three to five years, BC’s “circle of friends” will expand more and more.
In fact, as a pioneer, LONGi has always planned for the long term. As early as the beginning of the mass production of the BC plan, LONGi started to build and improve the ecological chain system. According to Zhong Baoshen at the launch ceremony of the LONGi Green Energy Global Distributed R&D Center and the Partner Co-creation Conference, to date, the R&D level and mass production level of all LONGi’s ecological chain companies have entered a stage where they can be promoted on a large scale. He pointed out that combined with the experience of tackling HPBC1.0, LONGi’s industrial chain layout in the HPBC 2.0 era is more complete than when it laid out single crystals. From glass to film, backplane, key equipment, junction box, welding belt and other links, they have been fully prepared.
A single tree cannot make a forest, and a hundred rivers converge into the sea. LONGi also knows that no matter how powerful a company is, it is difficult to be comprehensive. Recently, Zhong Baoshen also emphasized in many meetings that the development of BC technology cannot be separated from the joint efforts of upstream and downstream companies. LONGi has accumulated rich experience in its past development and is well aware of the importance of innovation and cooperation. LONGi is willing to cooperate with more companies to jointly promote the industrialization process of BC technology.
However, unlike in the past, facing the historical lessons of rapid technology diffusion and disorderly replication and expansion in the photovoltaic industry, LONGi and a number of companies in the BC technology camp hope that the industrialization process of BC technology can follow business rules and be based on respect for intellectual property rights.
From the recent cooperation between LONGi and Jinyang New Energy and Yingfa Deyao, it can be seen that LONGi adopts the model of technology licensing and equity cooperation to accelerate the construction of BC production capacity. LONGi and Jinyang New Energy adopt the method that all parties will jointly establish a joint venture company dedicated to the production of HBC solar cells; in the cooperation with Yingfa Deyao, the products are basically sold by LONGi in the early stage, and the cooperative company is also allowed to sell part of the products to the outside world in the future, but it needs to pay technology licensing fees to LONGi and cooperate based on the intellectual property licensing rules. At the same time, another important member of the BC technology camp, Aixu, has reached a cooperation with Gogreen Solar, and the premise is also on the basis of respecting intellectual property rights.
In addition to cooperating with related companies to expand production capacity and accelerate the scale effect of BC components, LONGi and Aixu have maintained a strong momentum of expansion. It is expected that by the end of 2025, LONGi’s BC production capacity will reach 70GW (of which HPBC second-generation capacity is about 50GW), and it is planned to fully transform all domestic battery bases into BC product production lines by the end of 2026. Aixu is also accelerating its expansion plan, and production bases in Zhuhai, Yiwu, Jinan and other places are under intensive construction.
From a series of layouts, it can be seen that LONGi’s route is very clear. From finalizing the BC technology route in 2023 to the steady layout of products, ecosystems, and production capacity, LONGi has always been firmly on the path of its choice, step by step.
Compared with the desperate promotion of monocrystalline technology in the past, LONGi now has a more complete industrial chain support, more skilled professionals and a more sound intellectual property protection system. However, whether it can continue to write the “myth” of monocrystalline again still needs time to verify.
