On October 14, the Silicon Industry Branch released an analysis of the supply and demand of the silicon industry in October.
Industrial silicon
According to Antaike statistics, industrial silicon continued to accumulate in October, with supply exceeding demand by 90,000 tons. Among them, the supply in October (including 97 silicon and recycled silicon) was about 500,000 tons, and the demand (including export forecast) was about 410,000 tons. As of the end of October, the inventory of the industrial silicon industry was about 870,000 tons (the warehouse receipt volume was 271,900 tons as of October 31), which is still at a high level. It is predicted that in November, due to the shutdown and reduction of production by manufacturers in the southwest region during the dry season, the output will be reduced to about 420,000 tons, and the total supply will be 460,000 tons (including 97 silicon and recycled silicon); the downstream organosilicon has new production capacity, polysilicon enterprises have maintenance and production reduction plans, and aluminum alloy enterprises are in normal production. The overall domestic demand is about 340,000 tons and the export is 60,000 tons. It is expected that the supply will decrease in November, the demand will decrease slightly, and the supply will exceed the demand by about 60,000 tons.
Polysilicon
According to Antaike statistics, the cumulative supply and demand balance of polysilicon in October 2024 will increase by 30,100 tons. Among them, the supply of polysilicon (including import forecast) is about 136,600 tons, and the demand for polysilicon (including export forecast) is about 106,500 tons. As of the end of October, the cumulative inventory of polysilicon was about 358,000 tons, which was at a relatively high level. According to the production schedule of upstream and downstream enterprises in November, both polysilicon and downstream silicon wafer production are expected to be lowered. It is expected that polysilicon will continue to accumulate in November, but the accumulation rate will decrease, and the incremental level will be about 28,000 tons.
Monocrystalline silicon
According to statistics, on the supply side, the actual supply of silicon wafers is 43.6GW. The battery production in October was 51GW, which was flat month-on-month. The export volume of silicon wafers in October was about 2.5GW, and the apparent demand for silicon wafers was about 54GW. According to the supply and demand balance calculation, the inventory consumption in October was about 10.4GW. As of the end of October, the cumulative inventory of silicon wafers was about 8.2GW (including the raw material inventory of battery companies). The inventory of silicon wafers has dropped to about one week’s level, and the overall supply and demand relationship is basically at a reasonable level. If downstream battery companies maintain their operating load, it is expected that the inventory of silicon wafers will further decrease in November. According to the production schedule of silicon wafer companies, the output of silicon wafers in November is expected to be around 42GW, a decrease of about 1-2GW month-on-month. The inventory of silicon wafers will continue to maintain the consumption trend in November, and the overall consumption inventory will be about 8GW. The supply and demand relationship in the silicon wafer link has been significantly improved, but there are still structural contradictions between products of different sizes, and large-size silicon wafers are slightly in excess of small-size silicon wafers. In the medium and long term, if battery companies continue to maintain high operating load production, the structural supply and demand mismatch problem on the silicon wafer side is expected to be resolved before the end of the year.
